Analisis dasar ekonomi pentadbiran Trump dan kesannya pada tahun 2025.
Trump's 2025 Economic Gamble: Record Markets, Historic Gold Surge
The first year of Donald Trump's second presidency has produced a striking economic paradox. The S&P 500 trades near all-time highs while gold has surged over 50%—from $2,600 to above $4,000 per ounce. This unusual combination reflects both confidence and deep anxiety about America's aggressive new trade strategy.
Recent weeks saw the administration sign trade deals in Asia, secure critical mineral supplies, and navigate a domestic economy strained by a government shutdown now in its 29th day. These moves represent a calculated bet: that aggressive economic nationalism can reshape America's position in the global economy.
Asia Trade Deals: Tariffs on Goods, Freedom for Digital
In late October, Trump signed bilateral trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, with similar frameworks advancing with Thailand and Vietnam. These "Reciprocal Trade" deals mark a clear shift from multilateral agreements to country-by-country negotiations.
The deals opened markets for U.S. automakers and agriculture. The American Automotive Policy Council praised provisions requiring acceptance of U.S. safety standards, while farm groups celebrated eliminated tariffs on pork, poultry, and other exports to growing Asian markets.
But the real strategy lies in digital services protections. Each agreement reportedly prevents partner nations from imposing digital taxes or restrictions on American tech companies. This shields U.S. e-commerce, cloud computing, social media, and streaming platforms—protecting America's massive services trade surplus.
This dual approach—tariffs on physical goods, free trade for digital—defines the administration's 2025 economic doctrine. It uses tariffs to address the merchandise trade deficit while ensuring American tech dominance through barrier-free digital markets.
The China Strategy: Temporary Truce, Long-term Decoupling
Two recent deals with China signal a tactical shift from confrontation to managed competition.
First, a "fentanyl agreement" reduced some U.S. tariffs in exchange for Beijing's commitment to control fentanyl precursor chemical exports. The Peterson Institute framed this as both humanitarian progress and economic détente.
More significant is the one-year rare earth minerals agreement with President Xi. This temporarily secures U.S. access to materials essential for everything from smartphones to F-35 fighter jets—addressing a critical vulnerability in American supply chains.
But the administration isn't treating this as a solution. During the same Asia trip, Trump signed critical minerals deals with Australia, Japan, and other allies. These include U.S. investment commitments for new processing facilities and price floors to incentivize non-Chinese production.
Domestically, the government is backing companies like MP Materials to revive U.S. rare earth production and Niron Magnetics to develop magnets without rare earth elements. The China deal buys time while America builds alternative supply chains.
Domestic Disruptions: Pennies and Shutdowns
Two domestic crises are creating economic chaos at home.
The "penny crisis" began when the U.S. Mint stopped producing one-cent coins in May—a cost-saving measure the president long advocated. Without federal guidance on the transition, banks ran short of pennies by November. Retailers now struggle to make change, with many rounding cash transactions to the nearest nickel. Retail associations warn this could cost millions during holiday shopping.
Far worse is the ongoing government shutdown, now in its fourth week. The USDA suspended SNAP benefits, cutting food aid to millions of families. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown has already cost $7-14 billion in lost GDP.
Adding to the strain: ACA marketplace premiums are rising an average 26% due to expired subsidies. The combination of shutdown, suspended food aid, and soaring healthcare costs is creating significant hardship.
The Market Paradox: Boom and Fear
The stock market surge appears to validate administration policies. After falling 20% when reciprocal tariffs were announced, the S&P 500 has rallied 34% since April. The White House points to $8.9 trillion in announced U.S. and foreign investment in manufacturing, AI, and energy infrastructure.
But gold's historic rally tells a different story. American Enterprise Institute analysts attribute the 50% surge to "highly unorthodox economic policies" that are undermining confidence in the dollar. Foreign central banks are reportedly shifting reserves from dollars to gold—an asset immune to sanctions or inflation.
The ballooning deficit, expanded by the new budget bill many fear will be financed through Federal Reserve money creation, adds to dollar concerns. Even Congress is pushing back: the Senate voted 51-47 to nullify the reciprocal tariffs, with four Republicans joining Democrats in a rare rebuke.
The Experiment Continues
Trump's 2025 economic strategy is clear: use tariffs and bilateral deals to reshape trade, protect digital dominance, and reduce dependence on China while promoting domestic investment.
The results remain uncertain. Strong equity markets suggest corporate America can thrive in this framework. But soaring gold prices signal deep worry about dollar stability and America's fiscal trajectory.
As the year closes, the U.S. is engaged in a bold economic experiment. The administration is betting it can restructure global trade in America's favor. The markets are betting that the restructuring itself carries serious risks.
